Masterforex v livro 3

Curso Master Forex - V - o melhor para forex education 3 livros forex sobre análise técnica - Apreciação sensacional Este site é feito com base em três livros da Masterforex-V, que formam a base do treinamento da Masterforex-V Trading Academy e é projetado para os traders , que não pode aprender a ganhar dinheiro de forma constante, depois de dominar os fundamentos da negociação no mercado Forex. Quando praticamente todos os meus alunos começaram a progredir de iniciantes a traders profissionais, levantando mais dinheiro em um mês do que durante muitos anos antes, percebi que podemos mudar do comparecimento em tempo integral para o treinamento por correspondência. Eu acredito que a forma de treinamento de correspondência de negociação no Forex é mais apropriada, porque: a) Nenhum profissional bem sucedido comerciante quer desperdiçar seu tempo em palestras em salas de aula durante o horário de trabalho. Pelo que. Ganhos no mercado, durante essas poucas horas, estão em grande excesso sobre o pagamento a ser pago pelos alunos para você. b) Não faz sentido fazer com que as pessoas percorram mil quilômetros e desperdiçar dezenas de horas escrevendo palestras, quando este curso de autores pode ser enviado por e-mail c) Perguntas-respostas sobre análise de negociação atual no Forex: é mais eficaz para qualquer comerciante ter a chance de questionar o autor do método, não dentro do prazo estritamente limitado (por exemplo, um seminário de vários dias), mas de forma permanente, a qualquer momento via internet, durante semanas, meses, anos. Ao mesmo tempo, eles terão a possibilidade de aperfeiçoar suas habilidades de trabalho no Forex, enquanto trocam informações valiosas ou suas observações sobre o mercado Forex. Neste, o comerciante-aluno tem a possibilidade de: 1. Obter seção teórica via internet (Livro 3 Masterforex-V), a fim de compreender os fundamentos e os detalhes desse sistema de negociação, em que eu trabalho em mim a) materiais adicionais para aquela seção teórica b) Perguntas e respostas, que foram anteriormente colocadas por centenas de outros estudantes da Academia em detalhes da implementação do sistema de negociação Masterforex-V. Ele também terá a possibilidade de perguntar a mim ou a outros comerciantes de mais de 40 países do mundo, que trabalham sob meu sistema de negociação, suas próprias perguntas. C) Treinamento diário sobre a aplicação do sistema de negociação Masterforex-V na negociação atual. Elaboração diária do plano de negociação para o pregão atual, seguido da análise on-line de soluções táticas, orientando sugestões de traders experientes e respostas às questões atuais, colocadas pelos iniciantes no pregão atual, cálculo de curto prazo e médio metas de tendências de longo prazo (transações curtas e longas, análise de onda de mercado) e correções, orientando sugestões dos departamentos da Academia do ponto de vista de Murray, canais, níveis de Fibonacci, análise de onda, localização das ordens de acumulação na bolsa de valores reais , índices de moedas, moedas associadas, etc., que são exigidos por um trader no curso de negociação no Forex. Este é o procedimento de rotina. Durante 1-2 anos pelo menos. Quais são as diferenças entre o método de treinamento dos operadores Masterforex-V e os outros. Eu não acredito que alguém possa se tornar profissional depois de ter lido apenas livros, não importa quão habilmente eles sejam escritos (alguém pode se tornar médico profissional depois de ler apenas manuais. E advogado, engenheiro, físico. Essa lista pode ir ao infinito. Acho que a profissão do comerciante Forex é exceção Não é a experiência de mais de 95 comerciantes em todo o mundo, aqueles que perderam e aqueles continuam perdendo seu dinheiro em Forex, o que prova o fato de que milagres praticamente não ocorrem neste mundo, e que um amador vai enfrentar uma falha E isso é lógico). Enquanto lia inúmeros autores de livros sobre Forex e bolsa de valores Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Larry Williams, Thomas Demark, Schwerber, Cornelius Luka, Di Napoli e muitos outros, eu continuava me surpreendendo com as idéias que:) Sempre surgem questões ao ler o livros, e, claro, o autor não ia responder nem eu nem outros leitores. E qualquer problema, incompreendido por um trader, resultará em perda de conta no curso de uma negociação real no Forex. b) Muitas outras questões surgem ao tentar aplicar seus sistemas de negociação em um mercado concreto durante o trabalho de rotina no Forex. Por exemplo, uma situação padrão: abre-se negociando sob o sistema de negociação de um autor famoso, mas a moeda vai para outro lugar. Então, onde foi o erro Qual dos seguintes foi: definição errada pelo próprio autor questão pendente você, como um leitor do autor simplesmente não o entendeu ou aplicação deste sistema de negociação tem algumas restrições Isso acontece todos os dias, os comerciantes tentam entender independentemente, ao custo de seu próprio dinheiro perdido no Forex, tanto o próprio Forex e os métodos de negociação, seguidos por eles e outros comerciantes. Como esses experimentos terminam? Milhões de traders de todo o mundo podem lhe dizer isso na íntegra, colorido e em detalhes. c) Estabelecimento de clube de elite e privado de Forex, unindo comerciantes bem-sucedidos, que, devido à internet, podem preservar seu anonimato, a seu próprio critério, e ter a chance de conversar entre si a qualquer momento. Cada comerciante, de iniciante a um aproveitador de moeda de sucesso, tem uma necessidade permanente de comunicação e partilha de ideias, pontos de vista numa determinada situação do mercado. Para iniciantes, é uma tentativa subconsciente de aprender com faculdades mais experientes, e para os comerciantes bem sucedidos encontrarem os iguais, a comunicação com quem será útil, interessante, significando rentável para a negociação. d) Mercado Forex, métodos de análise e trabalho não podem ser aceitos como dogma enquanto trabalha no Forex, aceito uma vez e para sempre. Eu posso dar dezenas de exemplos de pessoas concretas que foram negociadas com sucesso no Forex por muitos anos, mas com o tempo, sua margem de lucro estava se tornando cada vez menor. Qual foi a razão pela qual o Forex se desenvolve muito rapidamente, o mesmo acontece com as configurações do mercado Forex fora da bolsa. Principal computador, onde praticamente todos os operadores trabalham. O que era verdadeiro e correto há vários anos pode se tornar (em uma ou outra seção dos elementos do sistema de negociação) errado em qualquer dia. Por exemplo, há coisas que não podem ser mudadas por aqueles que fornecem aos traders citações (tendências, mas suas durações e peculiaridades dos movimentos variam e irão variar. Alternativamente, o dólar americano, como moeda principal do Forex, permanecerá, pelo menos por muitos mais anos, portanto, a objetividade do movimento de grupo de pares de moedas se associa ao dólar americano, como critério de movimento poderoso em um dia ou outro. Mas, é claro, as táticas do movimento de moedas em relação ao dólar americano variam e variam permanentemente) . Eu, por exemplo, recusei dezenas de métodos (detalhes do meu sistema de negociação), que usei para obter lucro há três anos, e substituí-los por outros diferentes. Isso significa que é necessário corrigir os sistemas de negociação simultaneamente com uma mudança de configurações de cotações fornecidas por aqueles que nos fornecem. A Masterforex-V Trading Academy foi organizada com o objetivo de resolver os problemas mencionados acima, onde todos podem colocar suas questões teóricas e práticas sobre o comércio on-line atual, sem considerar fronteiras de países ou fusos horários, separando-os. Eu acredito que este site será útil para os professores de cursos de formação de Forex muito considerável parte dele é dedicado à crise de Forex existente, estudando e ensinando métodos. Como resultado, 95-99 dos iniciantes perdem seu dinheiro e abandonam esse mercado para sempre. Os materiais do site podem ajudar os professores a ensinar seus alunos e a aprender algo por si mesmos. A partir da experiência de meus assistentes, eu estou bem ciente da falta de conhecimento específico de professores, fornecendo os fundamentos do Forex para os investidores iniciantes e, ao mesmo tempo, eles não conseguem obter habilidades práticas nesse mercado sob revisão. Espero também que este site seja útil também para os empresários, para aqueles que desejam abrir novas esferas de seus negócios com uma taxa de lucro muito alta. É uma esfera de negócios muito arriscada (para aqueles que não conseguem estudá-la bem), mas altamente lucrativa, excede as taxas de lucro em dezenas e centenas de vezes em comparação com as esferas tradicionais de negócios. Do ponto de vista de seus princípios organizacionais e similares de composição, esse negócio é fundamentalmente diferente, onde praticamente não há concorrência, custos de produção, auditorias fiscais e de outros governos, problemas de vendas e funcionários, sonhando com salários mais altos e menos esforços. Não há necessidade de investir o material dispendioso e a base técnica de um negócio, quando um empreendedor se transforma em um escravo de seus ativos fixos. Este negócio pode ser executado em qualquer lugar do mundo, conveniente para você, e não há ninguém, que queira tirar esse negócio de você, porque, não é um ativo material e técnico, que gera lucro, mas sua mente e sua capacidade de analisar. Para começar, é necessário entender o Forex, como um sistema. Esse sistema não é tão complicado em comparação a qualquer outro negócio, mas assume suas próprias regras e nuances, como qualquer outro negócio. No início, quero ressaltar que não é minha intenção ensinar como colocar entre 700 e 1000 itens em uma negociação na posição aberta por vários meses ou anos seguidos, mas, ao mesmo tempo, com base na Masterforex - V sistema de negociação, indico métodos de como fazer isso. As posições de longo prazo são mais apropriadas para os investidores em moeda, trabalhando com o crédito a partir de 1:20 e menos. A maioria dos traders no Forex são os aproveitadores de moeda, trabalhando nas tendências de curto e médio prazo (é assim que J. Soros se autodenomina), aqueles que abrem as transações em um crédito significativamente maior e terão lucro dentro de um dia. ou uma duas semanas. O sistema de negociação Masterforex-V se adapta melhor aos especuladores, permitindo ganhar corretamente de 20 itens em cada par de moedas em quase todas as sessões de ações européias e americanas. 20 itens, é claro, não é o limite para as tendências poderosas durante um dia, e a possibilidade de cada um deles ser solicitado a você no fórum privado da Masterforex-V Academy. Meus pares de moedas operacionais são GBPUSD. EURUSD. e USDCHF. Eu considero minha abordagem para trabalhar no Forex como conservadora. Minha tarefa é levar de 20 a 50 itens em um par de moedas por sessão, trazendo um risco durante a abertura das negociações para o mínimo. Se eu te desapontei, e você acha que tal receita diária não é suficiente para você, então não faz sentido você ler este site ainda mais. Eu não vou convencer ninguém em nada, eu simplesmente aconselho meus métodos, lógica e abordagens. Para cumprir a tarefa neste site aberto, vou fornecer as seguintes informações: Vou considerar uma série de questões teóricas e práticas de negociação no Forex, que são, a meu ver, incorretamente descritas nos livros, a fim de explicar o seguinte : - Quem fornece cotações em Forex, quando, como, por que e as razões para mover uma ou outra moeda para cima e para baixo - porque a moeda não está atrelada à análise fundamental do mercado Forex ao status econômico e político de seu governo, que é a razão pela qual vetor movimento do par de moedas pode coincidir com o vetor de notícias emitidas e não pode, mas pode mover lado oposto no decurso da emissão de notícias - Por 95-99 dos comerciantes perdem depois de estudar os livros disponíveis sobre Forex os erros de metodologia das posições fornecidas nesses livros e técnicas de apresentação do material de treinamento - quem, o que e como ensina os futuros traders nos cursos de Forex, após a graduação dos quais, praticamente todos os beg interior perde sua primeira conta de negociação no mercado Forex Seqüência de apresentação de material:) Tradicional ponto de vista nos livros sobre Forex no problema em análise b) Deficiências e contradições dessas posições e pontos de vista c) Sistema de negociação Masterforex-V, como um método para resolver o problema (parcialmente na seção aberta deste site, e o restante no curso de estudar na Masterforex-V Trading Academy) Para preencher o item A, teremos que explicar quais opiniões e conclusões erradas eu tenho notado nos livros de praticamente autoridades além da exceção: Bill Williams. Alexander Elder, Larry Williams, Thomas Demark, Schwager, Cornelius Luka, Di Napoli e muitos outros. ) Alguns deles estavam errados na hora de escrever um livro. Por exemplo, as médias móveis da seção do curso de treinamento pago, por exemplo, sob o sistema de negociação por Bill Williams para o 5º nível mais alto de trader. resolução de contradições não resolvidas de Denmarks no sistema de negociação Masterforex-V, baseado nos TD-points e TD-lines, inventado por ele Os erros de táticas de negociação de Cornelius Luka no triângulo em expansão e sua correção no sistema de negociação Masterforex-V Classificação de tendências por Erick Naiman notável e confuso no momento da publicação. b) Autores famosos falharam em apresentar alguns de seus métodos na íntegra, espero que as razões para isso sejam claras para todos, os autores nunca apresentam tudo o que sabem e podem fazer. Por exemplo, moedas associadas a seções dão exemplo do movimento de grupo de pares de moedas associados em negociação por Bill Williams. mas isso não é recomendado para uma audiência ampla. Não resolvido armadilha para especialistas por Larry Williams e sua solução no sistema de negociação Masterforex-V etc. c) alguns métodos são notáveis ​​no momento (por exemplo, ponto de vista de Demark, Murphy. Bill Williams e outros autores em relação à característica do escopo de negociação no decorrer da definição da verdadeira e falsa penetração de níveis. Este item é correto para o mercado não controlado, mas é uma armadilha durante a negociação no mercado Forex controlado para muitos comerciantes), quando moeda reverte contra o escopo, lógica e senso comum apenas porque não estamos no Forex descontrolado, mas controlado Forex, onde tanto os comerciantes e um gerente deste jogo estão localizados em lados diferentes do mercado, tentando tirar o seu lucro de cada de outros. A compreensão disso ajudou-me a evitar muitos erros no meu trabalho no Forex. d) ALGUNS MÉTODOS, DOS MAIS CONHECIDOS AUTORES DE LIVROS SOBRE O FORMALEO. bem como métodos de trabalho nesse mercado, estão corretos para uma certa PARTE de operações de Forex e eles funcionam. Mas quando os autores tentam apresentar seus métodos como os polivalentes, sem distinguir áreas onde seu sistema de negociação funciona e onde não enfrentaremos uma situação bastante familiar: alguns traders comprovarão o acerto desses autores e alguns explicarão como perderam todos os seus dinheiro ao seguir os mesmos métodos. Normalmente ambos os lados estarão certos. Ao falar sobre minha abordagem dos métodos de análise técnica, terei que quebrar muitos estereótipos, devido aos quais muitos traders perdem seu dinheiro no Forex. Eu darei minha visão pessoal e não padronizada do problema para cada um dos seguintes problemas. Vou revelar deficiências dos métodos existentes, o que e onde devem ser alterados ou adicionados, para que estes métodos famosos comecem a ajudar a obter lucros e não perdas: - Qual dos indicadores em Forex é o mais justo e preciso - As moedas associadas, adversários e peculiaridades do movimento do grupo de moedas - Nova classificação de tendências. como áreas de lucro ganhando praticamente sem falhas pelo comerciante - Peculiaridades da negociação impecável no Forex dentro do dia da sessão de negociação - Peculiaridades da negociação bem sucedida no Forex sob a tendência de médio prazo dentro da semana - médias móveis: porque alguns deles levantam uma fortuna e os outros perdem todo seu dinheiro. Procedimento de trabalho sob Masterforex-V. - Operação de traders durante a emissão de notícias, pontos de abertura impecável de negociações, sem respeito a valores e notícias publicadas - Peculiaridades de uma atividade de traders na sessão americana - prevista no Forex, ou como aprender a fazer o mesmo independentemente, ao invés de pagar alguém por isso - por que metade dos traders perde no Forex, ao seguir o sistema de negociação de Bill Williams. mencionado no caos comercial e novas dimensões do comércio de câmbio O que mais pode ser adicionado ao sistema de Bill Williams, uma vez otimizado para o comércio contemporâneo na tendência Forex - Pivot. São cinco balas, mencionadas por Williams. suficiente para o pivot de tendência Qual das 11 balas de Masterforex-V. além desses cinco, pode acabar matando a tendência. - Identificação de problemas psicológicos, surgindo com os comerciantes enquanto operam as contas reais, acompanhados de conselhos infelizes de psicólogos profissionais e psicoterapeutas. O método Masterforex-V para superar um medo e problemas psicológicos semelhantes dos comerciantes forex. E muitas outras coisas que podem ajudá-lo como comerciante a ganhar dinheiro no Forex. Espero que este livro ajude, em certa medida, a mudar uma proporção daqueles que perdem e ganham dinheiro no Forex. Proporção 19: 1. em favor do gerente do maior jogo financeiro do mundo chamado Forex. Na minha opinião, tal proporção permanecerá como está. É uma questão de em que gráfico você vai cair, como um comerciante. Se você deseja ser treinado em Trading System Masterforex-V - uma das novas e mais eficazes técnicas de negociação Forex no mundo, escreva para o e-mail: membersmasterforex-v Testemunhos sobre treinamento - masterforex-v. su/testimonials. htm resultados dos estudantes Masterforex-V Trading Academy e vencedores das competições Forex Trading - masterforex-v. su/konkurs. htm Copyright reservados e registrados na Book Chamber of Ukraine. Qualquer distribuição justa ou paga é proibida, exceto pelo site oficial dos autores masterforex-v. org e masterforex-v. su/. Qualquer uso das técnicas de negociação Masterforex-V é permitido somente pela autoridade do autor. As referências a masterforex-v. org e masterforex-v. su/ são obrigatórias. Antes de decidir participar do mercado Forex, você deve considerar cuidadosamente seus objetivos de investimento, nível de experiência e apetite de risco. Mais importante ainda, não invista dinheiro que você não pode perder. Há uma exposição considerável ao risco em qualquer transação de câmbio fora da bolsa, incluindo, mas não limitado a, alavancagem, capacidade creditícia, proteção regulatória limitada e volatilidade de mercado que podem afetar substancialmente o preço ou a liquidez de uma moeda ou par de moedas. Mais ainda, a natureza alavancada da negociação forex significa que qualquer movimento de mercado terá um efeito igualmente proporcional em seus fundos depositados. Isso pode funcionar contra você e também para você. Existe a possibilidade de você sustentar uma perda total de fundos de margem inicial e ser obrigado a depositar fundos adicionais para manter sua posição. Se você não cumprir qualquer requisito de margem, sua posição poderá ser liquidada e você será responsável por quaisquer perdas resultantes. Para gerenciar a exposição, use estratégias de redução de risco, como stop-loss ou limite de pedidos. Colocação de Ordens Contingentes (stop loss, limite, etc) não pode limitar suas perdas aos valores pretendidos Restrições governamentais e nossas políticas nos proíbem de abrir contas dos seguintes países restritos sancionados pela OFAC: Afeganistão, Birmânia (Mianmar), Costa do Marfim (Costa do Marfim) ), Cuba, República Democrática do Congo, antigo regime liberiano de Charles Taylor, Irã, Iraque, Líbia, Nigéria, Coréia do Norte, Sudão, Síria, Unita (Angola) e Zimbábue, bem como outras pessoas especificamente sancionadas. Um trader profissional Este site é baseado nos segredos comerciais de um trader profissional ou o que B. Williams, A. Elder e J. Schwager não disseram sobre Forex para traders8221. Análise técnica dos Pontos de Entrada e Saída do Sistema de Negociação MasterForex-V no Mercado Forex Estes livros destinam-se às pessoas que se familiarizaram com os princípios do comércio Forex e que querem aprender a sistematicamente ganhar dinheiro no Mercado Forex. Domingo, 29 de abril de 2007 O ponto de pivô do par de moedas é um dos pilares da negociação no Forex. Primeiro de tudo, vamos introduzir as seguintes designações (noções), necessárias para o assunto. Alta é a máxima no dia anterior Baixa é a mínima no dia anterior Fechar é o preço de fechamento no dia anterior. De um modo geral, existem os três principais critérios. 1. Existe a reserva de estoque (intervalo de cruzeiro) - ou seja, a diferença entre Baixa e Alta para o pregão. Por exemplo, no que diz respeito ao par GBP / USD, esta diferença pode exceder 100 pontos num dia de negociação. 2. O leitor também deve considerar o ponto de reversão do movimento do par de moedas (o ponto de giro) na sessão de negociação diária. Assim, é fácil calcular o possível lucro que poderia ser obtido por um negociante regularmente. 3. Se a tendência for o amigo (veja o Livro 1), é necessário trabalhar ao longo da direção da tendência. Nestas condições, a detecção dos pontos de pivô de tendência pode evitar perdas que podem ser condicionadas pelos seguintes fatores 8226 Uma mudança na direção da tendência. 8226 Além disso, essa concepção dos pivôs de tendência nos permite entender quando um acordo deve ser aberto em uma nova tendência - ou seja, no início do movimento do par de moedas, mas não no meio dele. O autor especialmente não recomenda a abertura de um acordo no final de uma nova tendência. Resumidamente, a habilidade de detectar o ponto de pivô real é necessária para o ganho regular de lucro no Forex (por pena, o conhecimento dele é insuficiente). O sistema dado faz a fundação da tática dos pontos de pivô, conhecida em todo o mundo (em detalhes, veja speculator-fin. ru/page. phpid64). O ponto de pivo pode ser calculado de acordo com a fórmula: Pivot (HighLowClose) / 3 (as designações introduzidas são apresentadas acima). Após o cálculo do Pivot, é possível determinar os níveis de resistência e suporte de acordo com as fórmulas fornecidas abaixo: R12Pivot - Low S12Pivot - High R2Pivot (R1 - S1) S2Pivot - (R1-S1) R3High 2 (Pivot - Low) S3Low - 2 (High-Pivot) Aqui R1, R2, R3 são os níveis de resistência S1, S2, S3 são os níveis de suporte. Assim, em sua essência, a tática dos Pontos Pivô é binária (binomial). Ou seja, o próximo passo é a continuação lógica do anterior. O ponto de reversão (pivot) é a pedra angular deste movimento. A tendência está acontecendo. Posteriormente, o ponto de reversão (pivot) da tendência dada está sendo deslocado. Não sem razão, todos os bancos de primeira linha e instituições de fundos fazem uso de cálculos tão simples durante 50 anos ou mais (veja forum. fxclub. org/showthread. phpt26915). Resumidamente, esta tática clássica de Pontos Pivot é bem conhecida em todo o mundo. No entanto, a aplicação ainda não conseguiu alterar a proporção de comerciantes bem sucedidos para perdedores (1/20). Agora o leitor deve tentar ver as desvantagens do método clássico de detectar pontos de pivô. O objetivo é entender as vantagens da técnica Pivot Points de acordo com o sistema Masterforex-V. 1. Como se pode escolher um prazo adequado para calcular o máximo (ou mínimo) e o preço de fechamento. É preciso ter em mente que o mercado Forex está funcionando vinte e quatro horas por dia regularmente. Ou seja, na Europa, os pivôs da América e da Ásia são diferentes nas mesmas condições. A razão é que as três variáveis ​​mencionadas (Alta, Baixa, Fechada) são diferentes em vários países. Vamos enfatizar novamente. Alta é o máximo do dia anterior Baixa é o mínimo do dia anterior Fechar é o preço de fechamento no dia anterior. Por exemplo, pode-se dar uma olhada em um gráfico que retrata o par de USD / JPY durante os dias 22-24 de maio de 2006. Lá está claramente descrito que os pivôs do dia seguinte em Moscou, Tóquio, Londres e Nova York seriam cardinalmente diferentes . Evidentemente, é condicionado pela diferença nos dias de calendário. Consequentemente, todos os três componentes dos Pivot Points clássicos estão representados na expressão acima apresentada (HighLowClose) / 3). Os pontos de pivô são calculados aritmeticamente. O resultado é mais uma magnitude média aritmética (como a média móvel) do que a determinação de um ponto real, após o cruzamento do qual a moeda logicamente faz um surto (salto) na direção oposta. Por exemplo, a magnitude da média aritmética do pivô pode ser igual a 50 do recuo. Como é evidente, esse valor não pode ser útil em um plano. Além disso, pode até ser prejudicial no apartamento se o recuo chegar a 62 e 76. Por exemplo, um comerciante pode abrir um acordo de 50 recuos contra a tendência. Ao mesmo tempo, a moeda a 62-recuo faz a inversão de marcha (reversão) para a continuação da tendência anterior. Como exemplo, o leitor pode ver o Gráfico 2.4.2. Este número indica claramente que, em 6 de junho de 2006, o EUR / USD caiu do máximo local em 1,2981 para 1,2922. Depois disso, aumentou em 76 - até 1.2962. Além disso, dentro da tendência intra-dia, o par de moedas subiu para o ponto 1.2594. Aproximadamente isto faz aproximadamente 400 pontos. Além disso, o leitor deve levar em conta os seguintes fatores. Durante um dia, uma moeda pode cruzar o Ponto de Pivot para várias direções várias vezes. É por isso que o Pivot Point clássico não pode ser considerado como um ponto real, no qual os negócios devem ser abertos. Como exemplo, vamos examinar o movimento do par EUR / USD em 14 de junho de 2006 (ver Gráfico 2.4.3 - Gráfico M-15). Para começar a partir do movimento do par de moedas em 13 de junho de 2006, o pivô fez (1,2617 1,2529 1,2545) / 3 1,2564). Um pivô deve ser dinâmico. O autor afirma o seguinte. Um par de moedas pode passar por 70-100 pontos no pregão europeu. Na sessão americana, o pivô deve mudar seu valor - como o verdadeiro ponto de reversão (real). Por exemplo, pode ser o início da correção de reversão do valor anterior do Pivot. Sob tais condições, um comerciante pode fechar seus negócios antes do início da reversão em questão. Caso contrário, um comerciante pode manter um negócio sendo aberto ao longo da tendência mais adiante (um acordo de longo prazo). Isso é possível se o preço não cruzar o Pivot na direção inversa (oposta). Vamos examinar um gráfico que descreve o movimento do par GBP / USD durante os dias 29-30 de junho de 2006. Como se pode ver, os pares de moedas romperam o Ponto Pivô durante a tendência semanal. No entanto, esses pares de moedas não cruzaram o ponto pivô em direção oposta durante a tendência da sessão - não obstante o fato de que esses pares de moedas passaram por várias centenas de pontos durante um dia e meio. Em diferentes intervalos de tempo, o pivô deve indicar pontos diferentes. É preciso distinguir a reversão na tendência intra-dia da reversão na tendência intra-semana. Então, novamente, a tendência de duração de várias semanas apresenta o padrão principalmente diferente - e assim por diante. No entanto, de acordo com a abordagem clássica do problema dos Pontos Dinâmicos, apenas um valor é considerado - isto é, o do dia anterior. Portanto, logicamente surge a seguinte questão. A reversão de qual tendência o pivô faz Novamente, o leitor deve ter em mente que esse pivô é calculado de acordo com a fórmula acima indicada (HighLowClose) / 3 no dia anterior. R. Axel (da Dow Jones Agency) desenvolveu sua própria técnica de cálculo de pivô quando os níveis do dia anterior não se encaixam nesta fórmula (HighLowClose) / 3. Esta discrepância também confirma que o método clássico de determinação dos Pontos Dinâmicos é imperfeito. Pode-se fazer as seguintes conclusões. Os exemplos acima indicados ilustram claramente a principal diferença entre abordagens à noção de Ponto Dinâmico como um ponto real de reversão de pares de moedas no Forex. Ou seja, há a abordagem dos classicistas do Forex e, em contraste com isso, o ponto de vista do Masterforex-Vs. De acordo com este último sistema, os procedimentos a seguir devem ser feitos. 1. Deve-se calcular a correção e a reversão em vários TF - para iniciar a partir da sessão intra-dia (M15) e até várias semanas (D1). Isso claramente mostra a diferença entre a correção e a reversão. Por exemplo, as seguintes situações podem ocorrer. 8226 A reversão pode ocorrer durante a tendência da sessão quando o movimento do par de moedas não excede o Pivô em uma tendência semanal, que é igual à correção da sessão semanal, mas não à reversão. 8226 A reversão pode ocorrer durante a tendência da sessão quando o movimento do par de moedas excede o Pivot na tendência semanal. É o primeiro sinal da reversão que pode ocorrer dentro da tendência semanal. 2. Tal correlação entre os dois tipos de tendências nos permite fazer o seguinte. 8226 Para obter lucro durante a tendência da sessão. 8226 Entender a dualidade (binaridade) na direção do movimento do par de moedas (a continuação ou cancelamento (abolição) dentro de uma tendência de sessão ou tipos mais longos deles. 3. O recuo de 50 indica um pouco não a inversão de tendência mas mudanças quantitativas em Aqui está implícito o desenvolvimento adicional do movimento do par de moedas ou a transição do par dado para o plano. De acordo com Masterforex-V, deve-se correlacionar essas tendências com outros fatores - como o tempo de movimento, a correlação entre a moeda aliada pares e níveis técnicos em vários TF, etc. Agora vamos considerar este problema como é apresentado na Masterforex-V Trading Academy Mais uma vez, deve-se dar uma olhada no gráfico onde o movimento par EUR / USD durante 5-6 de junho de 2006 8226 Pivot Points na tendência intra-day 8226 Pivot Points na sessão semanal de tendências Esta informação é conveniente Devido a isso, pode-se entender os seguintes pontos: fatos (e fazer uso deles). 1. pode-se detectar o ponto em que a tendência intra-dia do urso começa 2. pode-se detectar o ponto onde o início da tendência semanal do urso pode ser confirmado com certeza. 3. On pode ver em que pontos a tendência pesada (forte) correções - ou o recuo de tendência - poderia ocorrer. 4. Pode-se entender as condições para a reversão da tendência e sua mudança do tipo urso para o touro. No entanto, isso não aconteceu no caso em questão. 5. Além disso, um comerciante deve ter em conta a abolição do ponto de reversão (falha). Em relação a esse aspecto, pode-se afirmar em um acordo por um longo período. Masterforex-V Trading Academy em Inglês - masterforex-v. su Para o trabalho no Forex, todos os dias cada trader deve detectar os níveis técnicos de resistência e suporte. Como já foi mencionado nos capítulos anteriores, a detecção de níveis técnicos de resistência e suporte é bastante complicada. Um comerciante (especialmente o iniciante) deve diferir claramente os níveis de vários pares de moedas. Com base nesses critérios, pode-se projetar um plano comercial para o pregão e desenvolver as táticas diárias de trabalho. Suponho que os níveis técnicos mais adequados sejam apresentados por Axel Rudolph, da agência Dow Jones Newswires. Há um exemplo dos níveis técnicos em 7 de julho de 2006. De acordo com a análise técnica dada aos mercados de moedas europeus por Axel Rudolph, da agência Dow Jones Newswires, o USD cairá (queda) - veja os gráficos em movimento feitos em 7 de julho 2006 por 24 horas. EUR / USD EUR / GBP EUR / JPY EUR / SWISSI. A 3 a resistência 1,2914 0,6997 148,12 1,5766 A 2 a resistência 1,2842 0,6988 147,80 1,5742 A 1 a resistência 1,2789 0,6968 147,50 1,5713 O ponto de reversão (pivô) 1,2775 0,6957 147,15 1,5699 O 1 º suporte 1,2730 0,6942 146,96 1,5689 O 2 º suporte 1,2730 0,6920 146,55 1,5669 O 3º apoio 1,2685 0,6913 146,20 1,5650 Vamos examinar o movimento do par EUR / USD durante o dia. O par visa a menor (acessório) resistência no nível 1.2789 (é nível de correção de Fibonacci por 61.8). Se este nível for quebrado, o par alcançará o ponto 1.2842. Para este par, o 1º nível de suporte está localizado no nível 1.2758 (o mínimo no domingo). If, on the contrary to expectations, this level will be broken through, the pair can test for strength the minor ( accessory, second-order) support at the level 1.2730. In the weekly Chart. EUR/USD pair movement is depicted. It is an ascending trend. EUR/GBP pair movement is presented in the daily Chart. One can expect the pair to reach ( arrive at ) the secondary resistance at the level 0.6968. If this level will be broken through, the pair will aim at the resistance at the point 0.6988. The 1 st level of support is located at 0.6942. If this level of support will not resists ( stand up ), the currency pair will aim at the level support at 0.6920. In the weekly chart. . one can see EUR/GBP pair movement. It is an ascending trend. EUR/JPY pair movement is depicted in the daily chart. This pair aims at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 147.50 - until the 1 st support at 146.96 is not broken through (the daily minimum on Tuesday). Exceeding the value of 147.50, the pair will aim at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 147.80. Below 146.96, the levels of support are 146.55 and 146.20. EUR/JPY pair movement is depicted in the weekly chart. It is an ascending trend. Further, EUR/SWISSI pair movement is depicted in the daily chart. The pair again puts on trial the minor ( accessory ) resistance at the level 1.5713 (it is the maximum in the given medium). If this level will be broken through, this pair will test for durability the resistance at the level 1.5742. The 1 st support is located at the level 1.5689. The next one is placed at 1.5669 (the minimal value on the Thursday morning). There is EUR/SWISSI pair movement depicted in the weekly chart. It is the ascending trend. And now we regard with the following currency pairs: GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/SWISSI Aussie dollar/USD. The 3 rd resistance1.8496 116.67 1.2446 0.7510 The 2 nd resistance 1.8475 116.01 1.2396 0.7503 The 1 st resistance. 1.8415 115.84 1.2364 0.7481 The point of reversal 1.8370 115.20 1.2292 0.7464 The 1 st support 1.8320 115.02 1.2262 0.7449 The 2 nd support 1.8270 114.34 1.2197 0.7439 The 3 rd support. 1.8200 114.00 1.2135 0.7405 Let us examine GBP/USD pair movement during that day. The pair aims at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at the level 1.8415. If this level will be broken through, the pair will aim at the point 1.8475. For this currency pair, the minor ( accessory ) support is located at the level 1.8320 (the maximum on June 23). The next level of support makes 1.8270 (the maximum on June 27). There is GBP/USD pair movement depicted in the weekly chart. Is it the recoil from the level of support Let us examine USD/JPY pair movement during a day. The currency pair is descending again, aiming at the minor ( accessory ) support at 115.02. If this level will be broken through, the currency pair will aim at the level of support at 114.34. The first resistance is located at 115.84 (the maximum in the medium). We now dwell on USD/JPY pair weekly movement. The increase is hampered by the resistance level. Let us examine the daily chart of USD/SWISSI movement. One can expect the pair to descend down to the minor ( accessory ) support at 1.2262, till the growth will be restricted by the resistance at 1.2364. If this level of resistance will be broken through, an increase in this currency pair on Friday can restrict the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 1.2396. The support is located at 1.2197, which is lower than the level 1.2262 (the minimum in the medium). Again, one can study USD/SWISSI pair movement, depicted in the weekly chart. The increase is hampered by the level of resistance. There is Aussie dollar /USD pair movement depicted in the daily chart. This pair aims at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 0.7481. If this level will be broken through, this pair will aim at the marks 0.7503 and 0.7510. These points are the maximums on June 9 and June 12, respectively. The 1 st minor ( accessory ) support is located at the level 0.7449 (the minimum on the Friday morning). This level of support must hold out ( survive ) if the currency pair tests this level for strength ( durability ). If this level will be broken through, the minor ( accessory ) support at 0.7339 will hamper the decay of this currency pair. There is Aussie dollar /USD pair movement depicted in the weekly chart. One can see the recoil from the level of support. The point of recoil ( U-turn, pivot ) is equal to the sum of the maximal and minimal prices of the bargain closing at the previous day, divided by three. Students of Masterforex Trading Academy have developed an indicator - Pivot RS session. It is intended for saving time that could be spent on daily marking points of recoil ( U-turn, pivot ) and 3 levels of the resistance and support (see the levels of the resistance and support by Axel RS - forum. masterforex-v. org/index. phpshowforum24 . We now dwell on the advantages of the technical analysis given by Axel Rudolph to Forex market. 1.For a trader, it is so easily to see the reversal (pivot) point and 3 levels of resistance/ support as regards the 8 basic currency pairs at Forex. Surely, such approach economizes the time. 2.One should pay attention to Axels analytical review title. The further currency movement at that very day must be taken into account as well. Rudolph Alex has clearly exposed the currency pair movement direction at the beginning of trading at Forex. 3.In the charts that concern June 7, 2006, one can watch how the ally currency pairs, located place beyond the pivot, have managed to break through the levels of resistance/ support 1, 2, 3. It is condition ed by decrease in USD rate. 4.Let us dwell on the possibility of gaining profit at Forex. As one can judge by the above-given examples, a trader can gain profit with the currency pair movement to start from the 1 st and up to the 3 rd level of support/resistance. The comments . The reader should pay attention to dispute between Masterforex-V Trading Academy students and a leader of Forex Brokers Forex Club. This Forex Brokers, every day issuing Dow Jones Newswires, somehow manages to keep on forgetting to submit the analytical reviews that contain Rudolph Alexs levels to its traders. Only students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy have made one of the largest Forex Brokers of Forex club in Russia to include Rudolph Axels analytical investigations into Dow Jones Newswires for the traders. We now dwell on drawbacks of technical levels at Forex, submitted by Dow Joness agency. 1. Any system cannot be reliable if one does not understand the essence of it. So, what one can do when Axels levels would be not issued tomorrow. Otherwise, R. Axel can be mistaken. 2. How one can on ones own detect R. Axels levels in several hours before the news publication. 3. How one can manage to know the levels of resistance/support in half of an hour earlier than R. Axel would publish it By the way, students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy somehow do get this information earlier than it appears in Dow Jones Newswires ( news line ), issued by leading Forex Brokers in Russia 4. You can calculate the currency pair pivot (the point of reversal) according to the following technique: the point of reversal is equal to the sum of the maximum, minimum and the price of closing at the previous day, divided by three. However, this point will never coincide with the value, which R. Axel would submit you the next morning. Is not it true How to calculate the pivot so that to make both these values to coincide 5. Which other techniques can be used in order to check the correctness of R. Axels levels. For instance, on July 7, 2006 the fourth level of resistance for the EUR/GBP pair was calculated before the issue of news. It made the local peak in American session. (GBP was at 1.8540 EUR was at 1.2860). There is another example. On July 10, 2006 R. Axel has pointed out to the 3 rd level of support of GBP as 1.8415. At the same time, the majority of participants of Masterforex-V Trading Academy closed their bargains at 1.8365 - it was the local minimum on that very day (July 10, 2006). How one can detect a local minimum of the trading day with the accuracy up to 1 point in the first half of the trading session when GBP has moved through 160 points Aiming at gaining profits regularly, students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy study such specificities. Surely, the detection of pivot point and the 3-4 levels of resistance/support is necessary for gaining profits regularly. However, the knowledge just of this method is not enough. Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. su Recoil from the technical level. In its essence, this part is dedicated to the following. 1. To scrutinize the classicists of Forex approach to the problem of determining the difference between true and false technical level breakouts. 2. To expose drawbacks, inherent in each of the classical systems, which cause traders losses at Forex. 3. By giving analysis to these problems, to elaborate methods of their solution. One can describe the todays state of the technical level analysis at Forex as the following. 1. A unified method of detecting technical levels at Forex is not elaborated yet (see the Part Levels of support and resistance in Masterforex-V TS. 2. A technique that could permit us to estimate whether the breakout is true or false still is not developed as well. One can mark out the two types of the currency pair movement at Forex : a). There can happen the true (real) breakout through the technical level, after which a currency pair is moving towards the next level. b). On the other hand, a recoil from the technical level, a false breakout included, is possible. For the traders work, the following aspects are important. 1. There exists a flat - i. e. a lateral trend between the first levels of the resistance and support. When a currency gets into this price corridor, its further movement direction is uncertain. 2. By definition, the trend is the directed movement of currency pairs as the result of the true ( real ) breakout of the flat technical level. uma). If the currency pair movement is directed upwards, it is the breakout through the 1 st level of resistance ( the breakout upwards ). b). If the currency pair movement is directed downwards, it is the breakout through the level of support (the breakout downwards ). It is clearly depicted in the charts given below. Chart 2.1. The false breakoutthrough the level of resistance and return to the flat zone. Chart 2.2. The true breakout of the level of support and the beginning of the bear trend . There are the rules that a trader must observe. 1. Under the conditions of the flat . a) Either to be out of the market (especially if the trend range is narrower than the average statistical stock reserve ( cruising range ) for a given currency pair per the trading session). b). Otherwise, one can work with the recoil - i. e. to make deals on buy from level of support and on sell from level of resistance under the condition of the flat broad ranges, approximately equal to the average statistical stock reserve ( cruising range ) for a given currency pair per the trading session. 2. Within the trend, I would recommend to work only towards its direction (a trend is my friend). 3. The true breakout through the technical level indicates the beginning of a trend. UMA). That is, if it is the breakout through the level of resistance, the bull trend is beginning. B). Otherwise, if it is the breakout through the level of support, the bear trend is developing. 4. The trend development ( course ) is the directed movement from one level of resistance/support to another. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 . After breaking through the 1 st level of support, the currency is rushing from one level to another - till the recoil. It means the non-breaking through any of the next levels or the false breakout through one of them. In Chart .2.2 . the false breakout through the 3 rd level of support (the flat) is depicted as well. It indicates that the given trend movement is temporally arrested or it has come to the end. 5. The trend wave attenuation ( the end of it ) is the trend directed movement turning into the lateral movement (flat). The flat is characterized by non-breaking through a level of resistance/support or the false breakout (the recoil). In Chart.2.2 . one can see the false breakout through the level of support 3. 6. The market is under the conditions of the non-stop movement. Therefore, in a trading session, the trend end in the form of a flat makes the starting point of the trend further development. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 - between the levels of support 2 and 3. As it is shown in Chart 2.3 . the support 2 turns into the resistance 1.A local minimum turns into the support 1. Hence, the next trading session can be still carried out under the conditions of a flat, the levels of support/resistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support 2, after breaking through the resistance 1, can open the bull trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the bear trend will start. Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support . Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following. 8226 One must understand (feel) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part). 8226 One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included. 8226 One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF). Comentários. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95 of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true breakout through the technical level from a false one. 8226 When the technical level breakout is true, one must open a deal in the direction of the trend commenced. 8226 When the technical level breakout is false, one must open a deal towards the opposite direction. It is so simple ( evident ), isnt it It is just necessary to clearly distinct ( tell ) the true breakout signs from the false ones. We now examine how the difference between the true and false breakouts through the technical levels is explained by the classicists of Forex . Generally speaking, the classicists state the following. The true breakout, in contrast to the false one, occurs when the trading volume is increasing. In the case of the false breakout, the trading volume does not increase. In Exchange trade basis, Alexander Elder states the following. While opening a deal on buy, the best situation is when the breakout upwards in the day chart would be confirmed by the technical indices that could indicate the formation of a new upwards-trend beginning in the weekly chart. Larger trading volumes are inherent in the true breakouts. On the opposite, as a rule, false breakouts are characterized by small trading volumes. In addition, when the breakout is true, the technical indices reach new maximum/minimum values towards the direction of the trend development. The false breakout is often characterized by the divergence between prices and indices. A certain price corridor is more inherent in the market than a trend. The majority of breakouts through the price corridor bounds are false. Such breakouts can involve into the game a gambler who follows the trend - earlier than the prices return to the standard. The false breakout is the amateurs plague. At the same time, professionals adore such false breakouts. Neimans viewpoint is the following. In their majority, false signals can be checked ( detected ) with the help of the volume indices. In the first ( primal ) currency movement towards the level of support/resistance, the trading volumes are increasing. At the last stage in currency movement towards the level of support/resistance, such volumes are diminishing. That is, at the beginning of this reversal figure development, the volume is increasing due to the trend previous price movement. When the figure development is coming to the end, the volume is increasing due to the price movement in the direction, opposite to the previous trend. It is the sign that nobody is interested in prolonging the old trend. In a chart, it can be depicted as follows: L. Borcelino in his Manual of de-trading (see forum. masterforex-v. org/viewforum. phpf9 ) presents another characteristic of the double peak/minimum. The second peak/minimum is formed with a trading volume smaller than the first one. In fact, the second peak/minimum cannot be as high/deep as the first one. Nevertheless, it is the repeated attempt at moving towards the same direction. And what is more, such double peaks/minimums can develop their 3 rd. 4 th. etc. waves ( versions ). Such double/triple peaks/minimums can be formed within a short period - as well as during a much longer time interval - from several minutes and up to ten years. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing above the technical level breakout. This position must be hold up not less than during 2 days. J. Murphy in his Technical analysis of future markets also investigated the problem of criteria of the true breakout through the trend line. It is not a simple problem. In detecting such criteria, subjectivity of a kind is unavoidable. As a rule, the trend line breakout via the price of closing of bargain ( deal ) is more important than just a breakout within a day. There are price filters. They condition ( prescribe ) that the trend line must be broken through by a certain value. In addition, there exist time filters. Among them, the most commonly used is the so-called the rule of two days. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing behind ( above ) the technical level broken through. This position must be hold up not less than during 5 days. In his Technical analysis. The full course, D. Swagger studied the problem of signs of a true/false breakout. According to him, the following situation is rather common ( ordinary ). Prices just slightly deviate from the original trading range and only for several days. Later on they return back. One of the reasons of such pattern is the following. The market participants want to safeguard ( insure ) themselves against the heavy movement in prices after the trading range breakout. Therefore, they issue protective stop-orders in the vicinity to the trading range. The result can be the following. Sometimes even an inessential movement in prices towards the outwards of the trading range can stimulate ( provoke ) realization of a considerable number of the protective stop-orders. As soon as this primary flow of orders is saturated, the breakout comes to an end - if it is not strengthened by fundamental reasons and support purchases. Otherwise, the breakout can sustain if there are large deals on sell in the case of the breakout through the lowest bound ( bottom ). Such sells can fortify ( strengthen ) this tendency. One must take into account such specificities in the price behavior. As an indicator of the tendency beginning, the trading range breakout probability is much higher if the prices still remain beyond the range after several days - e. g. after 5 days. When waiting for the confirmation of the breakout, one can partially miss the profit per several days at the beginning of the tendency. All the same, this tactics helps eliminating many false signals. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by overcoming of the 3- movement behind ( above ) the technical level broken through. According to J. Murphy, sometimes even the breakout with the price of closing is not enough to be sure that the true breakout through the trend line has happened. To exclude false signals, the majority of analysts use various time - and price filters. The 3-breakout makes an example of a price filter. Mainly this criterion is used for estimating a long-term trend line breakout. The price of closing must leave the trend line not less than by 3. However, this rule is unacceptable to some financial futures - e. g. to deals with interest rates. D. Swagger mentions that other signs of the confirmation can be used - such as the minimum percentage change in the price. T. Chand has studied the channel breakout (see On the other side of the technical analysis - 1997). His rule of entering is the following. If the todays closing is higher than the maximum price in the last 20 days, one must buy at the closing. In the case of the downward position, one must sell at the closing. Going out of a long deal must be realized at a new 5-days minimum or with the stop-loss. Going out of a short deal must be realized at a new 5-days maximum or with the stop-loss. The stop-loss makes 1500. This is a typical trend-following system. In Encyclopedia of trading strategies, D. Cats and D. McCormick examined breakouts on the basis of prices of closing. The test 1 is based on the channel breakout. In this system only the prices of closing are used. Here one does not take into account the entrance with the market price into the stock exchange tomorrows opening and the deal costs (the commission ( brokerage ) and slip). In this system, the rules are the following. If a current position is short or neutral and market price is higher than the price of closing in the last n days, one must buy at the tomorrows opening. On the contrary, if a current position is long or neutral and market price is lower than the minimum price of closing in the last n days, one must sell at the tomorrows opening (open a short position). The only parameter is inherent in this system. It is n (the number of days under analysis). Chart 2.5. The breakout of upper bounds of narrow trading ranges (GBP September, 1990). Under the condition of a heavy trend movement, a deal may be opened even after 5() days. This case is hardly can be contested. However, what must be done in the other situation, examined by Swagger as an example of the analysis of another type. Chart 2.6. The breakout of the previous minimum as a signal of sell. Soybean oil. Continuous futures. Chart 2.7. Support at the level of the previous relative maximum and resistance at the level of the previous relative minimum (DM, continuous futures). How to correlate such recommendations given by Swagger with the principle of work on the breakout of the resistance/support level only on the 6 th () day We now dwell on the difference between breakouts through the resistance/support levels under the conditions of 8226 the strong signal (), 8226 the signal of intermediate strength (), 8226 the weak signal (). It is the classification according to E. Neiman in his The traders small encyclopedia (see forum. masterforex. org/viewforum. phpf9 ). I conventionally divide such signals into the three groups. It makes it easier to understand Neimans approach towards determining the signal strength - and, respectively, to find out the strong and weak points of this theory. UMA). Within the trend, the signal is strong (). B). In the period of a flat, the signal is moderate (). C). In the direction opposite to that of the trend, the signal is weak (). These types of the signal are depicted in Chart 2.8. Chart 2.8. The signal types . The recoil from the level occurs, and the false breakout does happen more often than the true one. It is the work with recoils from each of the technical levels. Again, let us return to On the other side of the technical analysis by T. Chand. He has examined the recoil ( rolling-backsystem ). According to the old rule, the deal must be made on buy when the recoil is directed towards the support. Many traders like such situations. Really, the risk is minimal, whereas the potential profit could be rather high. On the contrary, one can buy in case of a strong trend and sell when the trend is weak . The key point consists in distinguishing the recoil from support. The recoil is a slight correction of the trend. The recoil kinds can vary. For instance, one can determine the recoil as the currency movement in the last 3 days. Otherwise, it can be regarded as the approach to a moving average (MA). The latter can be considered as that of 20 or 50 days duration. It can be a simple or exponential one. All the same, the price can touch the average or cross it. The entrance into the 1-band in the vicinity to this MA is also possible. After scrutinizing the conditions, one can decide where the buy could be profitable. For instance, it can be done at the tomorrows opening, at the yesterdays maximum, or at the maximum chosen within 5 days. A lot of variations of this system can be developed in this way. First, we will regard the recoil as a new minimum within 5 days under the condition of the upward-directed trend and new maximum within 5 days under the condition of the downward-directed trend. Further, we must determine the notion of a trend. The minimum must remain above the 50-day simple MA, whereas the maximum must be below this MA. Other versions are possible. A trend coming into the existence must be confirmed by ADX-14 exceeding 30. Otherwise, as an index of recoil, one can use RSI-14 or stochasticity. Getting into the critical zone, the reversal and leaving this critical zone make the signal. In Stock exchange secrets, L. Connors and L. Rushky state the following. In trading on the deviations ( oscillations ), the most appropriate model is the trading on the trial of the previous peaks (maximums or minimums). Such tests enable us to indicate the double breakpoint ( rest-point, salient point ). Thus, one can find a perfect position for opening a deal. Under such conditions, the risk of losses is minimal. The detection ( test, probe ) of a minimum, where the long-term position must be opened, can take place slightly higher or lower. All the same, the support cannot be established before the realization of the detection ( test, probe ). The majority of our models has become formed exactly after the successful detection ( test, probe ) - i. e. after the previous maximum/minimum approbation by the market and returning to this value again. Chart 2.9. An example of the double breakpoint ( rest-point, salient point ). T. DeMarque has examined the difference between the true and false breakouts through the technical levels. He has emphasized the importance of estimating whether the intra-day price breakouts are true. TD-points must be chosen correctly. TD-line must be plotted from the right to the left. The price guideposts must be calculated. After this, the three way-outs must be considered: 1. There can appear the signs of the tendency reversal. 2. A substantial shift in the correlation between the demand and proposal is possible. 3. The price guidepost realization is important as well. Besides, there is another factor, to which the attention should be paid. One must consider whether the intra-day price breakout is true. This is especially important. I regard my investigations in this area as a substantial contribution into improving of the technique of choice of a moment of entering the market - and leaving it. What is more, the given principles are applicable in other methods of the technical analysis as well. The following situation is rather typical. Traders take a position at points of the trend line breakout to-be. Than they with horror watch that prices stop and start to move in the opposite direction. This results in substantial losses. However, those very traders keep on doing the same mistake, not thinking about the origins of it. False breakouts are always rather frequent. It is traders stumbling block, because of which some of traders totally refuse to use the trend line. A techniques of developing TD-lines has somewhat improved this situation. Nevertheless, false breakouts do happen. As far as I know, a technique of estimating whether the breakout is false or true is not developed yet. We now dwell on the breakout qualifiers. TD-qualifier of the breakout 1. The signal of buy is true if the price of closing has decreased the day before the signal arrival. The signal of sell is true if the price of closing has increased the day before the signal arrival TD-qualifier of the breakout 2. The signal of buy is true if the price of opening is higher than the price of breakout. The signal of sell is true if the price of opening is lower than the price of breakout. TD-qualifier of the breakout 3. The signal of buy is true if the price of closing on the eve of the breakout, summed up with the difference between the price of closing and the minimum price in the same day (or the price of closing the two days before the breakout if it is lower) is lower than the price of breakout. The signal of sell is true if the difference between the price of closing on the eve of breakout and the difference between the maximal prices of closing in the same day (or the price of closing the two days before the breakout if it is higher) exceeds the price of breakout. I have discovered three TD Breakout Qualifiers. There are two price models, formed the day before the probable breakout. In addition, there is one model, which is formed in the day of breakout. In particular, I have drawn the following conclusion. If a market is in the state of oversell (overbuy) the day before the breakout, there increases the possibility that the amount ( pressure ) of buyers (sellers) all the same will not become diminished after the breakout. This makes just illusion of the market strength (weakness). Giving analysis to the price behavior on the eve of breakout, I have discovered the following. If the price of closing on the eve of breakout upwards is lower than in the previous day, the probability of the true intra-day breakout increases. In this case, it can be recommended to open a position in the intra-day intersection (crossing) of the trend line. I determine this as TD Breakout Qualifier 1 (see Chart 1.37 ). In a way, TD Breakout Qualifier 3 is similar to TD Breakout Qualifier 1. Really, it also takes into account the price movement on the eve of the trend line breakout. However, in the case of TD Breakout Qualifier 3 one determines the difference between the maximum price and the price of closing on the eve of the trend line breakout downwards. Further this difference is subtracted from that very price of closing. It is the method of calculating the supply value. The demand value is calculated in the following way. The difference between the price of closing and the minimum price on the eve of the trend line breakout upwards is added tothat very price of closing (see Charts 2.10, 2.11 ( 143 and 144 )). The true breakout can be detected in the following way. One must find the difference between the price of closing on the eve the breakout upwards and the minimum price in that very day (or the price of closing in the previous day - if it is lower). Further it is necessary to add this difference to the price of closing in the day before the breakout. If the value obtained is lower than the price at the point of breakout, the breakout is considered true. If the value obtained is larger than the price at the point of breakout - most probably, the breakout is false In the given example (see Chart ), the difference between the price of closing and the minimum price on the eve of the breakout of TD-line of supply (A-B) is added to the price of closing in that very day. The value obtained is smaller than the price at the point of breakout. Consequently, the trend line breakout is true. In this chart TD-line of demand (A-B) is also drawn ( plotted ). In Chart (145 ), for determining whether the trend line breakout downwards is true, the use is made of the procedure, the sense of which is reversed with respect to the above-described one. First, one has to determine the difference between the price of closing and the price minimal on the eve of the supply line breakout upwards (A-B). Further, the price of closing in the same very day must be added to this difference. As one can see, the resulting value is smaller than the price at the breakout point. This confirms that the breakout is true. The principal drawbacks of the classical theory of distinguishing the true and false breakouts of technical levels at Forex from the viewpoint of Masterforex-V TS . Such drawbacks are the following. 1. The classical theory of the true and false breakouts of technical levels was developed not issuing from conditions of Forex money-market (where the trading volume was not taken into account). Some other markets were considered. 2. Even T. DeMarque has recognized that this approach is incorrect in total. This classicist has admitted the following. As far as he is concerned, he still doesnt know any technique that could permit traders to see whether the price breakout is true or false. One can judge by oneself. Really, it is evident that the deal opening directly after the previous day technical level breakout must be specified much more exactly. E. Neiman doesnt write about this aspect directly. However, his approach to the order opening is based on the conviction that a given breakout must happen along the trend development direction. This approach must be scrutinized much more closely. The reason is that the one of the keystone figures of reversal (such as either the head and shoulders, or the head and shoulders reversed) is purely the result of ( exactly indicates ) a local peak breakout of the previous day. Some traders try to play safe. Avoiding not getting into the head and shoulders figure, they open deals after 5 () days to start from the technical level breakout. In this connection, there arise the following questions. Surely, one could give analysis to broad markets post factum. In this case, one can choose heavy trends of the duration within 30-70 days or longer (as Swagger did it). Thus, one can recommend traders to open their deals in the 6 th day to start from the technical level breakout. However, whats about the real trading Under such conditions, a trader does not know the trend actual duration. For instance, see Chart . GBP/USD pair movement on June 30, 2006 can serve as an example. The support at 1.8000 has been broken through. After waiting for 5 days, one could open a deal in the vicinity to 1.7560 at the 6 th day - i. e. after the currency has already advanced more than the half-way in its movement (by 440 points). Now one could expect a local minimum at 1.7310 - to be more precise, at 1.7435. Exactly at this point, after the breakout thorough the previous day maximum, the currency has reversed. Thus, making use of the technique by Swagger one can gain just 125 points under the conditions of a strong trend (690 points). However, one must keep in mind that the reversal could happen earlier. That is, one losed 500 point in order to dogmatically stick to the rule not to open a deal during the first 5 days after the level breakout. As the result, a deal will be opened at the end of the currency movement or before the recoil. When a dogma does not correspond to the practice any more, it would be better to decline ( reject ) it, would not it We now dwell on the recoil system according to T. Chand in his book On the other side of the technical analysis). Notwithstanding all the positive aspects of this system, a very serious drawback is inherent in it. That is, within the framework of this system one cannot detect a point at which the recoil turns into the reversal. The theory of the level breakout . developed by D. Cats and D. McCormick in Encyclopedia of trading strategies, must be revised ( specified ) from the viewpoint of ( with respect to ) the price of closing in the previous day. That is, one can give hundreds of examples when the work according to the given technique is profitable at Forex. At the same time, there are also hundreds of disadvantageous situations - e. g. the breakout through a local peak in the previous day can result either in the reversal or in a very heavy recoil towards the direction, opposite to the level breakout. In the framework of the classical analysis given to Forex, the notions of technical levels of resistance/support of tilted ( slant ) and horizontal channels are not clearly defined - they are just piled up. Hence, how can one tell the difference between these characteristics from those the features in common Elder was the first who attracted attention to the following problem. How to elaborate ones position in all the mess of true and false breakouts, trends and flats in different time frames The currency pair movement may be divided as following. b) trend recoils After this, all possible combinations of these three characteristics must be put on trial in various time-frames at least at 3 screens - as A. Elder has recommended. It is necessary to calculate the number of combinations. For instance, there is the combination 1. That is, the trend is in the minimal timeframe, whereas the flat is in the large-scale timeframe. At what points it must be determined whereas level breakouts are false or true Is it enough to use three screens ( displays ) according to Elder Maybe more screens would be preferable. As far as Im concerned, I work with 4 screens. What are the drawbacks and advantages of the given technique How different timeframes are correlated with one another under the following condition. That is, at ones point-of-sale terminal, there are 4 screens. However, one must take into account the quantity of timeframes much larger. What is the correlation between the technical levels of resistance and those of support, all of them being exposed at 4 screens In what way do the fundamental and technical analyses supplement each other How can a trader make use of the fundamental analysis from the viewpoint of its applying in the branch of the technical analysis, the problems of which are enumerated above Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. su Support and resistance are the known cornerstones in forex technicals, wherein: 1. a current forex rate (CFR) is surrounded by levels of: a). resistance being superior to CFR b). support being inferior to CFR. 2. a level breakthrough triggers a leap to a consecutive support/resistance 3. a false breakthrough is responsible for a rate backstroke (say, from resistance to support). Thus, having data on resistance and support levels and being armed with R/S true/false criteria, a trader grows faultless-entry skilled to ensure smooth level-to-level trading. To be found below is a graphic drawing of a flat followed by an R/S up/down breakthrough. In actual sample GBPUSD trade dated January, 31, 2006 the support breakthrough has triggered a bullish in-session trend. Simple, isnt it Affirmative at a glance, but 95 of traders loosing their forex deposits are calling for natural questions: 1. Whats the reason, the world traders are getting entangled in so a seemingly simple regularity 2. Whats the way of correct detection of R/S levels for currencies to use to jet off from 3. What attributes are inherent to true/false breach differentiation It is, thus, to be concluded that a trader will never achieve steady FX gains unless the answer is found to the above three simple questions. CLASSICAL BOOKS ON RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS Forex scholars books, when analyzed, are giving grounds why 95 of traders turn deposit-killers. The point is that under different technical scholars: a). fairly different understanding is being attached to support and resistance b). no distinct criteria (except Demarks technique) is in service to finding a support and a resistance c). there is no clear-cut interfacing between R/S levels on different timeframes. Below is sort of understanding classification: 1. R/S are understood by SOME SCHOLARS to be horizontal lines drawn along price highs and lows support and resistance are horizontal (or almost horizontal) lines linking several minima Fig.2. Support and resistance Legend E. Nayman using resistance/support levels at trade station: 4. MOVING AVERAGES based resistance/support levels. uma). E. NAYMAN: Bollinger Bands are sort of peculiar support/resistance lines 5. ROUND NUMBERS being support/resistance levels a). E. LEFEVRE (view: Memories of an Exchange Profiteer forum. masterforex-v. org/viewforum. phpf9 ) underlined: Rates, having, for the first time, traveled 100, 200 or 300 points, are almost sure to cover additional 30 to 50 pips b). D. SCHWAGGER: One is to be especially cautious about dollar holdups. With USD781,25 best working on T-bonds and USD425 - on soybeans, temptation is raising to find optimum holdup for each market. It is advantageous to establish a round number to comfortably use it all of the markets. CLASSIFICATION OF WEAK AND STRONG R/S LEVELS AS VIEWED BY FOREX SCHOLARS J. MURPHY classifies support and resistance (view Technical Analysis of Futures Markets, New York Institute of Finance Prentice Hall, 1986) proceeding from: price in-domain residence period (1) volume of trade (2) and price domain age (3). 1. The longer the price reciprocation period within a certain support/resistance area, the more critical the area. By way of an example, if a certain stagnation area observed a 3-week price up/down movement with subsequent rally thereof, this support domain is more important than that having observed a 3-day price reciprocation. 2. Volume of trade is another means to evaluate importance of support/resistance. If, say, a support formation did involve a huge volume of trade, it means a huge number of contracts passing from hands to hands, hence the support levels is ranking high and visa versa: the less the volume of trade, the lower-ranking the support. 3. Still another support/resistance importance indicator is its age in relation to the present moment. Since we are dealing with traders reaction to market moves and to positions they have entered or have failed to enter, it is fairly clear, that the younger the event and the reaction thereto, the more important the event. Seven years later (in 1993), A. ELDER has confirmed 2 of 3 J. Murphys postulates dated back to 1986. His classification of resistance/support levels is guided by: - number of test tangencies it sustained (the greater the number - the stronger the level). Within a fortnight an immediate support/resistance is formed within 2 months the level grows accustomed to by traders, thus attaining medium power within 2 years actually a stereotype is built radiating strong support and resistance. - price scatter dominating a support/resistance level (the wider the range thereof - the stronger the level). A wide-range turning-point price consolidation is similar to a high fence surrounding valuable property. A congestion zone equal to 1 of current price (4 points with SampP500 at 400 level) yields insignificant support/resistance, whereas a 3 area is responsible for medium levels with a 7 area possessing sufficient power to be a strong trend killer. - The greater the volume of trade in a support/resistance area, the stronger the levels. Huge volume within a congestion zone is indicative of numerous emotional jobbers involvement. As opposite, minor volumes point out traders indifference towards the level being intersected, hence being attribute of the levels deteriorated health. Weak support/resistance levels are capable of bringing a trend to a halt, while strong ones may appear trend reversers. Traders buy support and sell resistance, thus turning their impact into a self-justifying projection. SCHOLARS VIEW ON SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SEATING POINTS 1. T. DEMARK recommends: - plotting resistance upon bid TD-points - plotting support upon ask TD-points. 2. D. SCHWAGER (view: Technical Analysis. Complete Course) insists on drawing resistance and support in the vicinity of prior lows and highs. Support and resistance are to be viewed as approximate areas rather, than exact levels. It is to be emphasized that any previous high is not at all a premonition of perspective prices dry up thereat or thereunder. Instead, it is indicative of a resistance to be expected near that level. By analogy, a previous low is not at all illustrative of further price declines halting thereat or thereabove. Instead, it is indicative of a support to be projected close to that level. Depicted below is a support zone governed by relative prior highs and lows concentration: gold, futures. Continued by D. Schwager: Some technical analysts use to treat previous highs and lows as being endowed with, sort of, holy significance. A previous high, being 1078, is deemed by them a strong resistance. In case the market displays a spike higher, say, as far as 1085, they reason the resistance to have been breached. Its not correct. Support and resistance are but to be looked upon as cloud-shaped areas rather than exact levels. 3. J. MURPHY resorts to plotting support and resistance in a local peak-wise fashion (i. e. by local highs and lows): A resistance level usually coincides with the previous peak level. 4. A. ELDER: Resistance and support are to be preferably plotted (see Fig. 13) through congestion zone margins (CZM) rather than through highs and lows. CZMs constitute traders mind-changing areas, whereas highs and lows are only reflective of panic among weakest jobbers. Continued by A. Elder: Beware of support/resistance false breaching, indicated as F in the above figure. Breaches are followed by amateurs, with professionals being opposite travel jobbers. Now, pay some attention to the charts right corner, where prices have bumped into strong resistance. Its high time to hunt for shorting with a stop-loss to be placed slightly above the resistance level. To be noted is a pronounced regularity, not referred to by A. Elder: the support/resistance levels drawn through previous local peaks are not extended by him after false breaching thereof. 4. D. SCHWAGER gives the following explanation when resorting to projection of 2 () inclined support and resistance levels: - Standard lines are usually drawn through price extrema (highs, lows), attributable to traders emotions, therefore these points may not reflect the markets real trend. - An inner trendline is to be plotted closest to the bulk of relative lows and relative highs, ignoring extreme points D. Schwager himself is the recognizer of the subjective nature inner trendline method, but in so doing he jumps to a very important conclusion that ordinary trendlines are: - far less helpful (), than inner trendlines. One of inner trendlines shortcomings is their inevitably random nature, even greater than that possessed by ordinary trendlines, being restricted by extreme highs and lows, at least. In practice, not infrequently, several options prove available as regards inner trendline plotting procedure (see Fig. 14). Nevertheless, my experience advises inner trendlines to be of greater avail than ordinary trendlines when spotting potential support/resistance areas. 1. Each forex scholar offers his own interpretation of support/resistance levels, meaning different entities thereby (inclined, horizontal, inclined-horizontal, MA-based, round numbers-based, etc.). 2. There exists no clear-cut technique to define points to plot support/resistance levels through (except that of Demarks). 3. In real time trading, that said, these levels discovery on forex charts automatically entails absolutely different conclusions. Legend: - ordinary trendline - inner trendline. TESTING AND PRACTICAL INCONSISTENCY OF CLASSICAL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE DETECTION METHODS Jeffry Owen Katz and Donna L. McCormick have disclosed results of their testing of the above scholars recommendation procedures in their Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies: TEST PROCEDURE 2 A channel breakthrough-operated system. Closing prices are utilized only next day market price entry at session opening commission and slippage being accounted for. The above test has been performed exactly the way the previous one, but with no account to slippage (3 ticks) and commission (USD15 per dealing cycle). Although the model displayed perfect operation with no account to dealing expenditures, it has turned out a complete fiasco in practice. Even the best-in-sample solution has proved loss-responsible only, and, as expected, the systems beyond-sampling poor operation came into being. Note: In compliance with E. Naymans theoretical outlook, a channel upward breach is alleged to be a STRONG (. ) trading signal at an uptrend. TEST PROCEDURE 6 It is a closing price breakthrough system with next day per stop-order entry. The model longs via a stop-order at the point of breaching a resistance appointed by recent highs and shorts via a stop-order at the point of breaching a resistance appointed by recent lows. As expected, the system exhibited much poorer operation with low profit and deteriorated statistics within sampling. The model proved killer to the per-deal average of USD798, with profit rating being 37. TEST PROCEDURE 7 The procedure involved volatility punch with next-day opening entry. The model longs upon next-day opening with provision that todays closing appears superior to the volatility upper edge. The model shorts in case of the price falling below the above edge. The optimization period embraced 240 dealings only with 45 being profit-bringing. TEST PROCEDURE 9 Involved is volatility punch triggering a per stop-order entry. The model effects a market stop-order entry immediately after passing a breach point. The sampling period incorporated 1465 dealings, each being of 6-day average duration. The system has ensured 40 profit with average gain of USD931 each. Under all parameter combinations only longs were winning. Both shorts and longs proved loosing outside sampling limits. Only 29 were winning out of the total of 610 dealings. Testing data, supplied by Jeffry Owen Katz and Donna L. McCormick, constitute convincing grounds that forex scholars trading systems involving support/resistance breakthrough (the way these are described by the scholar) are rather likely to result in loss than in profit. This is one of the reasons for 95 of traders to turn their forex deposits killers. Inasmuch as the support/resistance related theory is so mixed up and subjective, it is only to be guessed what sort of support/resistance reading-matter may be offered by modern forex brokers websites. Lets resort to sort of a brief investigation of support/resistance levels by way of May, 12, 2005 sample trading day analysis. - EUR/USD 1,2720 1,2475 1,29 1,3160 - GBP/USD 1,90 1,9150 1,8540 1,8130 Comments: the Alpari Analytical Department Director Roman Pavelko is hardly able to teach beginners, assuming the following: a). he has mixed up the EUR and the USD support and resistance b). being an intraday trader, he recommends going long on the GBPUSD at a 150-point distance from the current morning price, whereas it is common knowledge for any Masterforex Academy beginner, that after a 150-point travel any position on the GBPUSD should be squared at a local high, instead of waiting for a further 150-point intraday leap to 1,9150. c). have You ever heard about an intraday trader, indicating a 450-point difference between support and resistance in his pending session trading plan (GBPUSD 1,90 - 1,8540) d). these recommendations aftermaths are apparent: the GBP has punched 1 point to 1,9001 and swiveled down to 1,8871 the EUR reached 1,2958 and reversed to 1,2853. That said, do You think, someones going to fire R. Pavelko from the Alpari Chief Analyst position I rather doubt the fact. Hence, the question is: why should R. Pavelko be source of such sort of recommendations to naiumlve Alpari beginners and why is Alpari management happy about situation where traders turn losers after following these recommendations Brokers recommended support/resistance on the EUR/USD and GBPUSD as of June, 12, 2006 morning: - EUR/USD: support 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2685/90 1.2600, resistance 1.2890, 1.2930/40, 1.3000. - GBP/USD support 1.8740, 1.8670, 1.8560, resistance 1.8890, 1.8940, 1.9000 EUR/USD support 1.2820 resistance 1.22940 (. ) GBP/USD support 1.8805 resistance 1.8950 The June, 12, 2006 information on technical levels of EUR/USD GBP/USD is missing with the support/resistance levels themselves being quoted in incidental unsystematic fashion. EURUSD: - support: 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2770/50, 1.2720, 1.2670, 1.2630, 1.2600/1.2580, 1.2540, 1.2500, 1.2460, 1.2400/1.2390, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2250. - resistance: 1.2890/1.2900, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3040, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200/10. GBPUSD - support: 1.8840, 1.8800, 1.8740/30, 1.8700, 1.8670/60, 1.8630, 1.8590, 1.8535, 1.8500, 1.8450, 1.8400, 1.8360, 1.8300, 1.8270. - resistance: 1.8870/80, 1.8915/20, 1.8940/50, 1.8990/1.9000, 1.9060. RES 4: 1.2990 RES 3: 1.2965 RES 2: 1.2940 RES 1: 1.2915 CURRENT PRICE: 1.2890 SUP 1: 1.2830 SUP 2: 1.2795 SUP 3: 1.2755 SUP 4: 1.2685 RES 4: 1.9080 RES 3: 1.9000 RES 2: 1.8960 RES 1: 1.8915 CURRENT PRICE: 1.8895 SUP 1: 1.8815 SUP 2: 1.8725 SUP 3: 1.8725 SUP 4: 1.8515 Are You not getting mixed up Each broker presents his own support/resistance levels different from others. With the above diversity of levels being recommended any true/false breach of any technical level proves out of question. Should we attempt to simultaneously depict all the support/resistance levels furnished by various forex brokers, well ultimately find ourselves facing a picket fence thereof. The arrangement is reminiscent of J. Schwagers Technical Analysis. Complete course, raising a question: Is technical charting to be referred to as a prediction engine or as folk arts Probably, the best way out here is: 1. In view of huge number of forex scholars opinions, let everyone answer this question independently with the purpose of finding out the way to faultlessly pinpoint support/resistance levels. 2. Let everyone decide whether he is going to believe the support/resistance levels, released daily by various Brokers and Dealers, provided that: a). one has no idea of the definition principles thereof b). the above levels being offered at websites by non-traders or by ex-losers. Otherwise the natural result will remain equal to 95 of losers worldwide. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS CONSTRUCTION UNDER MASTERFOREX-V TRADING CONCEPT 1. Support and resistance levels are to be split into those of flat and trend: a). support/resistance levels are horizontal when in flat b). support/resistance levels are inclined when in trend. 2. Various kinds of support/resistance are intrinsic to various trend types (if You are considering 4 trend types, You will face 4 R/S grids if 5 trend types are being dealt with, there will emerge 5 R/S grids respectively). 3. A larger trend is of greater significance in respect to a minor one, whereas minor trend support/resistance levels are of more accurate nature than those of larger one. This issue has not at all been touched upon either by forex technical scholars, or by modern analysts. 4. All the 4 trend-type support/resistance detection procedure is elaborated in the fashion enabling the Masterforex-V Academy hundreds traders to daily set up support/resistance levels with 1-2 points deviation, due to forex quotes difference from various Brokers. This aspect has not been considered by forex technical scholars either. 5. It appeared indispensable to simultaneously analyze the minimum of 2 ally currencies support/resistance levels (say, GBPUSD, EURUSD, etc.) since there is the formula: True R/S level breach by the forex pair 1 False R/S level breach by the forex pair 2 EITHER False R/S level breach by the forex pair 1 OR True R/S level breach by the forex pair 2 This aspect has not been considered by forex technical scholars either. 6. Minor timeframes intermediate R/S levels (for the sake corrective depth calculation) ARE DIFFERENT from those being manifested under forex trendwise travel. This aspect has not been subject to investigation by forex technical scholars either. 7. The available technical analysis scholar literature on support/resistance levels contains plentitude of helpful and. dados. The objective is to effect independent synthesis of T. Demarks, A. Elders, E. Naymans, J. Murphys, D. Schwagers et al techniques with the above Masterforex-V principles in order to attain proper understanding of the way prior binary regularities tailor further movement perspectives. 8. A combination of 4 trends and more is helpful in 1-4 point-accurate detecting forex trading session local extrema. With the above said, it proves strange to hear the statement of Ch. Lebau and D. Lucas (see: Computer-aided analysis of Futures Markets (forum. masterforex-v. org/viewforum. phpf9 ), reading: We do not believe in exact price prediction popular practice. - Whats the way the Masterforex-V Academy students manage to profit now and then - Are they being no-readers of forex analysts numerous websites - Do they independently establish support/resistance levels on multiple timeframes of numerous - Do they check their established levels against a primary source (wherefrom the Brokers analysts use to crib a support/resistance) - Do they understand principles of true/false breaching of each level and of a bounce therefrom - Are they capable of calculating in-session currencies travel margins to a destination, whereafter the above currencies bounce off and exhibit corrective reversal THE QUERY MAY GO ON: Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. su BOOK II Chapter I THE MFV TRADING CONCEPT TREND DEFINITION To ensure steady profits at FX a trader is su pposed to pinpoint faultless entries and exits. Its common knowledge, that a trend is the principal and the most compromising relevant area. Hence, trend detection is the traders PRIMARY target. If The Trend Is Your Friend, entries should be executed trendwise and the profit should be allowed to flow, etc. there emerge questions to touch every live FX trader: - what are the trends criteria (bullish or bearish) - once known, it is a traders conventional job to enter trendwise and let the profit flow - if the FX major rule quintessence is as simple as that, why 90-99 of traders suffer losses with enviable permanence Book I Chapter XI Where trends are to be chased at FX or the traders faultless profit segments, masterforex-v./001011.htm analyses the FX scholars and modern forum-speaker traders overwhelming chaos in the field, ranging: - from the Charles Dow classical definition that a trend constitutes a vectored price travel, where each consecutive high is higher/lower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higher/lower than the foregoing one (my opinion: the definition is obsolete and does not fit new FX realities) - to some traders purely absurd opinions on no trends at modern markets along with Eric Naymans thinking of his trend varieties built upon no distinct criteria (There are none of any strict rules, once forever established, - E. Nayman stipulates). One of the factors responsible for traders en-mass deposit losses is fairly understandable from the above. If theres no distinct definition of trend - then the question is: should entries be effected bullish or bearish trendwise and where should the profit be allowed to flow MFV TREND DEFINITION From MFV standpoint a trend is a vectored price travel between two opposite reversal patterns. In-trend movement is of zigzag nature, i. e. there is a recovery wave following each pulse wave. The pulse/recovery ratio is indicative of the trend direction. Thus: - under a bullish trend, the uprising pulse length exceeds the corrective bearish wave one - under a bearish trend, the bearish pulse length exceeds the corrective uprising wave one - under a sideways flat, the pulse and recovery durations are equal. Figure 1 legend: - flat upper boundary - flat lower boundary Figure 1. Trend and recovery Headnshoulders is a USDCAD reversal pattern with a bearish trend startup, where a downward pulse is longer than an upward corrective action. Respectively, a USDCAD W1 bearish trend is alive till there is a reversal pattern. As obvious from USDCAD W1 chart, there was no upward reversal pattern in 2003-2006. Hence the W1 bearish trend continues. Later on in Book II TA in MFV trading concept I will stage a detailed description of each component, attributable to the trend change, but for the time being only the critical ones will be referred to. 1. Atrend continues till theres a swivel, thus increasing the importance of reversal patterns, discussed hereinafter. Reversal patterns are found at any trends origination and termination. Thereby a trend constitutes the distance from one reversal pattern to another, being opposite: - the start of a bullish trend is a reversal pattern of the preceding bearish or sideways trend - the bullish trend continuation is a trend continuation pattern (see Book II Trend continuation patterns masterforex-v. su/book2.htm )being a retracement variety calling for a trendwise entry. - the bullish trend termination being a bullish trend reversal pattern. Here are the examples: 2. There is an arbitrary fall of classical bullish and bearish trend reversal patterns into: a). reversal patterns resulting from a non-breakthrough of a next in turn resistance or support on a bullish or a bearish trend respectively: with reference to drawings of classical trend reversal patterns from the following books by FX scholars: John J. Murphy Futures markets TA: theory and practice D. Schwagger TA, comprehensive course A. Elder How to gamble and win at the exchange A. Elder Basics of exchange trading Larry Williams Long-term secrets of short-term trading K. Lukas Using TA at the world FX market A. Nayman Minor traders encyclopedia A. Nayman Master trading. Secret materials A quadrangle with the pulse and corrective waves equal to each other Below are several sample trend continuation models within a single trend. Of interest is the bullish wave transfiguration into a pulse and the bearish wave one - into a corrective action, thus governing a bullish trend continuation. - a pennant. CRITICISM OF CHARLES DOWS CLASSICAL TREND DEFINITION In last century thirties Charles Dow has proposed a trend definition up to now wandering from manual to manual and injuring traders in an irremediable manner. Please, once again go through Charles Dows definition: a trend constitutes a vectored price travel, where each consecutive high is higher/lower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higher/lower than the foregoing one. Is it clear why his definition fails to properly account for modern trend realities According to Charles Dow, the trend core criterium is restricted to the fact that each consecutive high is higher/lower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higher/lower than the foregoing one. It leads to erroneous logics of stops allocation (safety cushions per Bill Williams) offered in practically all FX manuals: one to several points lower the previous low at uptrend or the previous high at downtrend. Various timeframe figures below are illustrative of how this classical trick is used by the FX Game Organizer to blow off traders stops, positioned in strict accordance with Dows trend rules, included into the worlds FX manuals. What type of trend is here, proceeding from Charles Dows provisions Please, take pain to calculate how many highs are higher than the previous ones and how many lows are lower than the previous ones. And above all How many traders stops have been shot down here GENERAL TREND DEFINITION OUTLINE AS SEEN BY MFV TRADING CONCEPT. 1. Atrend is a vectored price travel between two opposite reversal patterns. 2. In-trend movement is of zigzag nature, i. e. there is a recovery wave following each pulse wave. The pulse/recovery ratio is indicative of the trend direction. 3. Classical patterns are incorporated within a recovery (pullback) model, followed by a new trend wave. And now, assuming these paras 1-3, we will analyze the above figure 18. By all classical canons the previous low of 1.9647 is to be followed by: - the preceding trend denial according to Charles Dows uptrend tops and bottoms being higher than the previous ones - stop-loss orders placement. Instead of stop-loss orders I resort to locking (see Book I masterforex-v. org/001018.htm ) I am always putting a series of questions to staunch supporters of stops being placed in conformity with FX canons: - Are You sure that the trend wont reverse at that point - If negative, why should You be placing a stop - But if You are certain, why dont You effect a concurrent opposite entry - What is Your piece of mind on how many traders in the world have placed stops along with You - Are You sure that the FX Game Organizer will not be tempted to knock down all the world traders stops by way of a single gesture and to continue urging the previous trend further on The above sample chart of dated 01.12.2006 furnishes strong evidence of: - WHAT FOR the world traders are trained to place stop-loss orders at the same point - WHAT FOR obsolete theories of Charles Dow and other FX scholars are published in millions of copies, being sufficient for ALL the traders throughout the world - WHY the 97-99 traders loss statistics is identical through all the countries. So, whats to be done to avoid plopping down into losers swamp AT LEAST, You are to try to get the understanding of WHERE and WHY traders loose their deposits whereas, AT MOST, You are to attempt to elaborate Your own entry and exit algorithm. To this end You are to give scrutiny to the chapters on reversal patterns and trend continuation, incorporating a detailed investigation of: - shadow details of each trend retracement (recovery) - see the chapter on trend continuation patterns - shadow details of each trend swivel - see the chapter on trend reversal patterns - inaccuracies, innuendos and direct errors committed by FX scholars on the issue. Putting it otherwise, You will have to find problems solution, many of the scholars (John J. Murphy, D. Schwagger, B. Williams, A. Elder, K. Lucas, A. Nayman, etc.) have failed to find. AND BY WAY OF A PROMPT FROM MFV: A headnshoulders reversal pattern should take shape to ensure trend reversal. Legend: option Options A and B are indicative of the points where the headnshoulders reversal pattern could be feasible. Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. suFugiat dapibus, tellus ac cursus commodo, mauris sit condim eser ntumsi nibh, uum a justo vitaes amet risus amets un. As seções podem ser encontradas em um dia ou em outro lugar, podem ser encontradas, podem ser usadas, adipisci velit, sed quia nons. Fugiat dapibus, tellus ac cursus commodo, mauris sit condim eser ntumsi nibh, uum a justo vitaes amet risus amets un. As seções podem ser encontradas em um dia ou em outro lugar, podem ser encontradas, podem ser usadas, adipisci velit, sed quia nons. Fugiat dapibus, tellus ac cursus commodo, mauris sit condim eser ntumsi nibh, uum a justo vitaes amet risus amets un. As seções podem ser encontradas em um dia ou em outro lugar, podem ser encontradas, podem ser usadas, adipisci velit, sed quia nons. Fugiat dapibus, tellus ac cursus commodo, mauris sit condim eser ntumsi nibh, uum a justo vitaes amet risus amets un. As seções podem ser encontradas em um dia ou em outro lugar, podem ser encontradas, podem ser usadas, adipisci velit, sed quia nons.